Dynamic modeling of the settlement microstructures.
Forming of a system of settlement is influenced by different factors and is
a spacial form of organizing of a society. The main aim of the project was
a case study of settling structures' changes, namely rural settlements, as
well as local systems of settling in the 20th c.
The research was made on the base of analysis of mass historical sources on
rural settling in the Middle Urals area: namely lists of settlements,
registered in 1909, 1928, 1939, 1956, 1970, 1979, and 1989. These lists
content general statistical data. These data were systematized in database,
where all 20th century Sverdlovskaya oblast' rural settlements were
presented, namely 3164 in total.
To accomplish dynamic analysis of the subject a method of "least squares"
was used. The obtained outcome has allowed to distinguish 6 main types of
rural settlements dynamic models: 1- "linear decreasing" - 60,12%; 2-
"linear increasing" - 9,41%; 3 - "parabola with branches up" - 2,65%; 4-
"parabola with branches down" - 18,68%, and two types of a quadratic
parabola 5 - "polynom - + -" -4,62%; 6 - "polynom +-+" - 2,97%.
The concluding stage of the research is connected with estimation the
factors that effect the model's behavior. Statistical methods allowed to
trace the influence of such characteristics as allocation of the
settlement, branch frame, national structure, availability of
administrative structures in a frame of settlement, affinity to transport
main lines were used. On the basis of geo-economical characteristics 6
different zones were distinguished in the Middle Urals. Each region had
distinguished types of settlements with distinguished dynamics.
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